±10 PTS
100%
within 10pts of human
CALIBRATION
GOOD
22×≤5pts · 22×≤10pts
›Model accuracy is GOOD — 100.0% of events within ±10 pts of human label
DIPLOMATIC RESOLUTION6×-3.0MAE 3.0 SANCTIONS RELIEF5×-2.5MAE 2.5 ARMS CONTROL4×-1.6MAE 1.8 PEACE AGREEMENT7×-1.1MAE 1.2 EVENTMODELHUMANERRORSEVERITYBARSOUTCOME
P71981-01Iransanctions relief
Iran hostage release — Algiers Accords sanctions unwind
-14.4
-11
-3.4
60%
MED
P71987-12United Statesarms control
INF Treaty — US-Soviet intermediate nuclear forces elimination
-21.6
-22
+0.4
90%
MED
P71993-09Israelpeace agreement
Oslo Accords — Israel-PLO mutual recognition
-20.4
-19
-1.4
85%
MED
P71993-10South Africasanctions relief
South Africa sanctions lifting — post-apartheid normalisation
-18.7
-16
-2.7
78%
HIG
P71994-10North Koreaarms control
Agreed Framework — US-DPRK nuclear freeze
-18.7
-16
-2.7
78%
LOW
P71995-12Bosnia and Herzegovinapeace agreement
Dayton Agreement — Bosnia peace accord
-21.6
-22
+0.4
90%
LOW
P71997-04Netherlandsarms control
Chemical Weapons Convention entry into force
-19.2
-17
-2.2
80%
LOW
P71998-04United Kingdompeace agreement
Good Friday Agreement — Northern Ireland peace
-21.1
-20
-1.1
88%
MED
P71999-02Indiadiplomatic resolution
India-Pakistan Lahore Declaration — nuclear confidence-building
-16.3
-13
-3.3
68%
LOW
P71999-09Turkeydiplomatic resolution
Greece-Turkey Aegean détente — earthquake diplomacy
-13.2
-10
-3.2
55%
LOW
P72003-09Libyasanctions relief
Libya sanctions lifting — Lockerbie resolution
-17.3
-15
-2.3
72%
MED
P72005-01Sudanpeace agreement
Comprehensive Peace Agreement — Sudan (2005)
-20.6
-20
-0.6
86%
LOW
P72012-07Myanmarsanctions relief
Myanmar sanctions easing — Obama engagement
-14.9
-12
-2.9
62%
MED
P72014-12Cubadiplomatic resolution
US-Cuba normalisation — Obama-Castro thaw
-16.8
-14
-2.8
70%
LOW
P72015-07Iransanctions relief
JCPOA — Iran nuclear deal
-20.4
-19
-1.4
85%
HIG
P72016-11Colombiapeace agreement
Colombia-FARC peace accord — Havana Agreement
-19.2
-18
-1.2
80%
MED
P72020-01United Statesdiplomatic resolution
US-China Phase One trade deal — tariff de-escalation
-15.6
-12
-3.6
65%
HIG
P72020-02Afghanistanpeace agreement
Doha Agreement — US-Taliban peace deal
-17.3
-15
-2.3
72%
LOW
P72020-09Israeldiplomatic resolution
Abraham Accords — Israel-UAE-Bahrain normalisation
-17.3
-14
-3.3
72%
MED
P72021-02United Statesarms control
New START extension — Biden-Putin nuclear arms renewal
-18.0
-16
-2
75%
LOW
P72022-11Ethiopiapeace agreement
Ethiopian ceasefire — Tigray war cessation of hostilities
-19.7
-18
-1.7
82%
LOW
P72023-03Saudi Arabiadiplomatic resolution
Saudi-Iran rapprochement — Beijing-brokered détente
-19.7
-18
-1.7
82%
MED
BARS: █ model · █ humanERROR: ≤5pts GOOD · ≤10pts OK · >10pts REVIEWClick row to expand